On January 5-6 2000 the The Alaska Science and Technology Foundation
sponsored a workshop on the effects of a warmer climate on infrastructure.
A website, http://www.engr.uaa.alaska.edu/infrastructure/ now contains the
details of the workshop, but in April of this year the discussions of the
proceedings and recommendations from the workshop will be posted.
The Warming World: Strategy for Alaskan Response
Orson P. Smith and Leonard Johnson
"Global Warming" - is it a reality? If so, how is it changing Alaska? How
will our roads, airports, the trans-Alaska pipeline and other key
infrastructure hold up? What can be done to minimize infrastructure
problems related to global warming?
The Alaska Science and Technology Foundation sponsored a workshop titled
"The Warming World: Effects on the Alaska Infrastructure" that was held at
the University of Alaska Anchorage on 5 and 6 January 2000. Over 100
scientists and engineers attended the workshop representing universities,
government and industry. The UAA School of Engineering, the US Army Cold
Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL), and the University of
Alaska Fairbanks organized the meeting. Other sponsors included the US
Department of Energy, Cominco Alaska, Williams Alaska Petroleum, and the
Port of Tacoma.
Presentations and discussions at the workshop focused on scientific evidence
of global warming in Alaska, consequences of warming to present and future
infrastructure, and prospective steps in response. Scientific accounts of
global warming research were followed by panel discussions on roads,
airports, marine facilities, rural infrastructure, oil, gas, and mining
infrastructure, environmental monitoring, and technical education. The
workshop ended with a plenary session to form conclusions and
recommendations.
Workshop presenters demonstrated that analyses of historical temperatures
and other measurements point to continued warming, as do computer
simulations of world climate. Growing evidence of ecological shifts, such
as northward migration of the tree line and changes in dominance of tundra
plant species, appears to confirm these studies. Permafrost is soil frozen
since the ice age that lies beneath about 80 percent of Alaska. Permafrost
with temperatures just below freezing, known as "warm permafrost," is
naturally in greatest risk of thawing. Warm permafrost is found in a broad
east-west band across the middle of Alaska, including the Yukon, Tanana, and
Kuskokwim River drainages. Thawed permafrost in many places will not support
buildings, roads, airports, or pipelines without high-cost construction and
frequent maintenance.
Attendees at the workshop agreed that roads, airports, and critical
infrastructure in Alaska rural communities would be adversely affected by
permafrost thawing. Experienced engineers pointed out that tested solutions
are available, given warning of changes, reliable local information, and
funding. Arctic engineers are accustomed to dealing with warming, since the
structures they build tend to have that affect on permafrost. Proven methods
of supporting roads, airports, and buildings can prevent settlement and
excessive maintenance of facilities built on permafrost. New works can be
located over gravelly "thaw-stable" permafrost to avoid the worst
consequences, but more costly up-front investigations are required to be
sure of the best site selection.
Most Arctic engineering mistakes stem from inadequate knowledge of the site
and ambient climate conditions, according to veteran practitioners at the
UAA meeting. These unfortunate circumstances could become more common as
climate changes accelerate. Widely used Alaskan engineering references are
outdated. Project site measurements reveal only current conditions. Climate
change trends presented in scientific studies are not directly applicable to
design nor readily available to busy commercial engineers. Alaskan engineers
today commonly rely on aging atlases of critical design parameters, some
based on measurements from the 1950's.
Effects of climate change discussed at the workshop will also occur in
sub-Arctic areas of Alaska, including the southcentral and southeast
regions. Sea levels will rise and storms will be stronger and more frequent.
Coastal communities now struggling with erosion will see shoreline retreat
accelerate. River communities prone to flooding and erosion will likewise
see increased snowmelt and rainfall, causing higher floods and faster stream
bank changes. Water supply systems will be affected all over Alaska by
increased precipitation and runoff. Again, proven methods can meet these
challenges, given good information and the means to accomplish appropriate
works.
Technical education at all levels was the topic of workshop session. Most
Arctic specialists from the DEW line and Trans-Alaska Pipeline design era
are nearing the ends of their careers. The new generation of engineers and
scientists has not experienced the intensity of these mega-projects to hone
their knowledge and skills. The burden on educational institutions is
therefore heavier to prepare technical specialists for coming global warming
challenges. Alaska needs to be certain of the competence applied to its
infrastructure needs. While other states license only degreed engineers who
show evidence of continuing education, Alaska still issues Professional
Engineer licenses to people without engineering degrees and requires no
continuing education.
What needs to be done in next 10 years? Proposals favored at the workshop
included update of engineering references, improved science-to-engineering
technology transfer, and monitoring of changing conditions critical to
infrastructure design. Some specific actions were proposed and some concerns
worth more discussion were identified.
The old atlases must be updated. These references, such as the
"Environmental Atlas of Alaska" compiled by the University of Alaska and
CRREL in 1978, synthesize and consolidate key field measurements in formats
that match building codes and design procedures. They are readily applicable
to the practical work of engineers in Alaska. Recent decades have provided
better measurements in new locations that should be combined with the old
using modern analysis. New media are available to portray this information,
such as Geographical Information System software and the Internet.
Technology transfer can be improved in several ways. Both the scientists and
engineers at the workshop enjoyed the opportunity to rub shoulders at UAA.
The group favored more workshops of the same general format. A revival of an
out-of-print University of Alaska magazine, "The Northern Engineer," was
proposed. More focus on Arctic technology at vocational schools and at the
State's universities is warranted. Support from industry for these efforts
will help the State and federal governments provide more effective
science-to-engineering flow of new knowledge to train the next generation of
Arctic specialists.
A partnership between the University of Alaska and CRREL, longtime
collaborators, may be formalized by summer 2000. CRREL is a federal
laboratory of about 100 scientists and engineers based in Hanover, New
Hampshire, with satellite offices in Anchorage and Fairbanks. Both CRREL and
the University of Alaska are recognized around the world as leaders in
coldregions science and engineering. Sharing of knowledge and resources
between these two institutions will continue to foster a cadre of cold
regions specialists equal to future challenges in Alaska, America's Arctic.
Environmental monitoring and related continuation of global warming research
were supported by a consensus of workshop attendees. Public works agencies
that fund projects only for the duration of design and construction, such as
the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities and the Corps
of Engineers, should leave in place means for monitoring infrastructure
status. Industry can also collect and share valuable data during the
operational phase of commercial developments. Reliable and affordable
instrument packages can be configured for these purposes. Application of
this environmental information will be critical to wise political and
commercial decisions.
"The Warming World: Effects on the Alaska Infrastructure" workshop succeeded
in formulating worthy responses to global warming. Specific actions proposed
for the near term include engineering reference updates and more focused
educational and technology transfer initiatives. Over the first decade of
the new millennium, a dedicated program of monitoring and analysis was
recommended to judge the status of existing infrastructure and for
cost-effective design of new public and commercial works. Though further
discussions are worthwhile, these recommended measures would minimize
difficulties in Alaska from global warming. Details of workshop discussions
and recommendations will be presented in the complete proceedings, to be
published in April 2000 at the workshop website:
http://www.engr.uaa.alaska.edu/infrastructure/
For further information contact:
Orson P. Smith, PE, Ph.D.
Associate Professor, School of Engineering
University of Alaska Anchorage
3211 Providence Dr.
Anchorage, AK 99508-8054
907-786-1910
907-786-1079 fax
afops [at] uaa.alaska.edu