Sea Ice Outlook Report Available
September 2009 Sea Ice Outlook: July Report
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
For further information and to view the report, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2009_outlook/report_july.php
Or contact:
James Overland (Lead, Sea Ice Outlook Core Integration Group)
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov
Hajo Eicken (Member, Sea Ice Outlook Core Integration Group)
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu
The 2009 September Sea Ice Outlook: July Report is now available. This
Outlook report, based on June data, indicates a continuation of low
pan-arctic sea ice extent with no indication that a return to historical
levels will occur. The range of individual outlook values is from 4.0 to
5.2 million square kilometers, with most estimates in a narrow range of
4.4 to 5.0 million square kilometers. The two lowest estimates, 4.0 and
4.2 million square kilometers, would represent a new record minimum. All
estimates are well below the 1979-2007 September climatological mean
value of 6.7 million square kilometers. To view the July Report, please
go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2009_outlook/report_july.php.
Although the majority of the responses indicate either persistent
conditions or a slight increase over the 2008 sea ice extent, there is
still about a 20% chance of reaching a new minimum in 2009. The
September 2009 extent, as we track it for the rest of the summer, will
depend on multiple factors, including the motion and melt rate of the
relatively high amounts of thin first-year ice, as well as temperature
and wind conditions.
The Regional July Report is of particular interest for the Northwest
Passage Region (NWP), where one approach indicates opening of the
passage, yet another indicates that opening of the passage is not very
likely. Satellite data and ground observations provide evidence that ice
conditions in the Nares Strait west of Greenland may favor an influx of
old high-arctic ice into the region later in the season. In the seas
north of Alaska, an interesting balance is struck between comparatively
mild ice conditions (well below normal multiyear ice levels and early
onset of ice decay) and cool, overcast weather conditions that are not
very conducive to early melt. To read the Regional Outlook, click on the
regional tab at:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2009_outlook/report_july.php.
The Sea Ice Outlook should not be considered as a formal prediction for
arctic sea ice extent, nor is it intended as a replacement for existing
efforts or centers with operational responsibility. Rather, it is a
community effort that provides an instrument for synthesis of data from
arctic observing systems and modeling activities to provide insight into
the arctic sea ice system.
For further information and to view the reports, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php.
Or contact:
James Overland (Lead, Sea Ice Outlook Core Integration Group)
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov
Or:
Hajo Eicken (Member, Sea Ice Outlook Core Integration Group)
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu