2014 Sea Ice Outlook
June Report Available
Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN)
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
The report is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2014/june
For more information, please contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
The June Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report is now available! The June report
is available at: http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2014/june.
The SIO is an activity of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN;
http://www.arcus.org/sipn) as a contribution to the Study of
Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH:
http://www.arcus.org/search-program).
The organizers thank the groups that contributed to the 2014 June
report; 28 pan-Arctic contributions is a record for the Sea Ice Outlook
and there were several new groups this year.
The goal of the SIO is to improve sea ice prediction on seasonal
time-scales. This June Outlook report was developed by lead authors Walt
Meier (NASA) and Jim Overland (NOAA), with contributions from the SIPN
leadership team and others.
The median Outlook value for September 2014 sea ice extent is 4.7
million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.2 and 5.1 million square
kilometers. Contributions are based on a range of methods: statistical,
numerical models, estimates based on trends, and subjective information.
We have a large distribution of Outlook contributions, which is not
surprising given the different observed values in 2012 and 2013. The
overall range is also large at 3.2 to 6.3 million square kilometers. The
median outlook value is up from 4.1 million square kilometers in 2013.
These values compare to observed values of 4.3 million square kilometers
in 2007, 4.6 million square kilometers in 2011, 3.6 million square
kilometers in 2012 and 5.4 million square kilometers in 2013. Only three
outlooks this year are above the 2013 observed September extent.
As the season progresses, it will be interesting to follow the relative
influences of weather (i.e., warm Arctic winter in 2013/2014 and the
wind and weather through the summer) and initial conditions of the sea
ice, all in the context of the long-term downward trend of sea ice
extent. This month's full report includes the comments on modeling
outlook, a summary of current conditions, key statements from each
Outlook, and links to view or download the full outlook contributions.
The SIPN team appreciates the addition of recent ice thickness data
estimated from the European Space Agency CryoSat-2 satellite, the NASA
IceBridge airborne campaign, and Office of Naval Research Marginal Ice
Zone Program buoys.
This is the first monthly SIO for the 2014 season; a call for
contributions for the July report will be announced via ArcticInfo and
the Sea Ice Prediction Network mailing list (see:
http://www.arcus.org/sipn/mailing-list).
For more information, please contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
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