Date

July Report (Based on June Data)
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

Pan-Arctic and Regional Outlook submission deadline: Monday, 8 July 2013

For further information on the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook

Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org

The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook (SIO)
organizers are soliciting pan-Arctic and regional outlooks for the second
report of the season, the July report (based on June data). We encourage
past and new contributors to participate. The SEARCH SIO is an
international project that provides a monthly synthesis of estimates of
the September Arctic sea ice minimum:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php.

The submission deadline is Monday, 8 July 2013 and all submissions
should be sent to Helen Wiggins, ARCUS, at helen [at] arcus.org. Due to
travel schedules, this will be a firm deadline. Late submissions cannot
be accepted. Submission guidelines are below.

SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK
Pan-Arctic Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Extent Projection
    Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean Arctic sea ice
    extent (in million square kilometers). Please also include any relevant
    information on ice thickness (or age), if available.

  2. Methods/Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model
    ensemble runs, etc.).

  3. Rationale
    Include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.

  4. Executive Summary
    Provide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in two
    or three sentences.

  5. Estimate of Forecast Skill (if available)
    If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill, uncertainty,
    or error associated with your prediction. Error estimates are included in
    the summary bar chart of outlook estimates, as appropriate.

SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Regional Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Region of Interest
    While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please
    specify which of the following the outlook applies to:

Arctic Regions:
- Beaufort-Chukchi Seas
- East Siberian-Laptev Seas
- Kara-Barents-Greenland Seas
- Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait
- Hudson Bay
- Sea of Okhotsk
- Bering Sea

Shipping Routes:
- Northwest Passage
- Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)
- Arctic Bridge (Murmansk-Churchill)

  1. Sea Ice Parameter
    Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phonological
    stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates,
    length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and
    ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be
    similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset,
    earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice
    concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up) than
    those of summer 2012.

  2. Outline of Methods/Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model,
    traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology
    and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the estimate.

  3. Estimate of Forecast Skill
    If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill, uncertainty,
    or error associated with your prediction.

  4. Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional)
    What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided
    in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your
    prediction?

ALL Outlook submissions should be sent directly to Helen Wiggins, ARCUS,
at helen [at] arcus.org, with the following subject lines, as relevant:

PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]
REGIONAL OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]
OUTLOOK FOR BOTH REGIONAL AND PAN-ARCTIC - [YOUR LAST NAME]

An MS Word document is preferred for ease of formatting to PDF files and
extracting images for the website - we will not edit your individual
submission and will not post your Word documents.

Pan-Arctic and Regional Outlook submission deadline: Monday, 8 July 2013.
Due to travel schedules, this will be a firm deadline. Late submissions
cannot be accepted.

For further information on the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php.

Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org

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