Date

Call for 2012 Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
June Report (Based on May Data)
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

Pan-Arctic and Regional Outlook submission deadline: Monday, 4 June 2012

For further information, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php

Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org

The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook (SIO)
organizers are happy to announce the launch of the 2012 Outlook season.
The SEARCH SIO is an international project that provides a monthly
synthesis of estimates of the September arctic sea ice minimum
(http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php).

We are now soliciting pan-arctic and regional outlooks for the first
report of the season, the June report (based on May data). We encourage
past and new contributors to participate.

The 2012 Outlook season will be a transition year to an expanded Outlook
in 2013; this year, we would like to focus on expanding discussion of
ice thickness, expanding discussion of the relative performance of
different Outlook techniques, and improving access to relevant outlook
data (see "Data Resources" webpage at:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/data.php). So in addition to
the pan-arctic and regional outlook contributions, we invite any
information or input to those topics as well.

ALL Outlook submissions should be sent directly to Helen Wiggins,
ARCUS, at: helen [at] arcus.org, with the following subject lines, as
relevant:

PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]

REGIONAL OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]

OUTLOOK FOR BOTH REGIONAL AND PAN-ARCTIC - [YOUR LAST NAME]

An MS Word document is preferred for ease of formatting to PDF files and
extracting images for the website - we will not edit your individual
submission and will not post your Word documents.

SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK
Pan-arctic Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Extent Projection
    Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea
    ice extent (in million square kilometers).

  2. Methods/Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model
    ensemble runs, etc.).

  3. Rationale
    Include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.

  4. Executive Summary
    Provide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in
    two or three sentences.

  5. Estimate of Forecast Skill (if available)
    If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,
    uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction. This year, we
    will add error estimates to the summary bar chart of outlook estimates,
    as appropriate.

We would also like to expand discussion of ice thickness in the monthly
reports, so please include any relevant information on ice thickness (or
age), if available.

Submission deadline: Monday, 4 June 2012.

All Outlooks should be sent to:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org

SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Regional Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Region of Interest
    While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please
    specify which of the following the outlook applies to:

Arctic Regions:
- Beaufort-Chukchi Seas
- East Siberian-Laptev Seas
- Kara-Barents-Greenland Seas
- Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait
- Hudson Bay
- Sea of Okhotsk
- Bering Sea

Shipping Routes:
- Northwest Passage
- Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)
- Arctic Bridge (Murmansk-Churchill)

  1. Sea Ice Parameter
    Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phonological
    stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates,
    length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and
    ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be
    similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset,
    earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice
    concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up)
    than those of summer 2011.

  2. Outline of Methods/Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model,
    traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology
    and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the
    estimate.

  3. Estimate of Forecast Skill
    If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,
    uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction.

  4. Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional)
    What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided
    in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your
    prediction?

Submission deadline: Monday, 4 June 2012.

All Outlooks should be sent to:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org

TENTATIVE 2012 SEA ICE OUTLOOK SCHEDULE

JUNE REPORT (using May data). Deadline for contributions:
4 June. Publish reports online: 11 June.

JULY REPORT (using June data). Deadline for contributions: 2 July.
Publish reports online: 10 July.

AUGUST REPORT (using July data). Deadline for contributions: 2 August.
Publish reports online: 10 August.

SEPTEMBER REPORT (brief updates based on August data). Deadline for
contributions: 4 September. Publish updates online: 10 September.

MINIMUM ANNOUNCEMENT. Based on the National Snow and Ice Data Center's
(NSIDC) announcement for minimum.

POST-SEASON SYNOPSIS (exact dates dependent on when minimum is reached).
Deadline for contributions: early October. Publish post-season synopsis:
late October.

For further information on the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php.

Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org

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