Regime Shift Detection Calculator
Now Available on the Bering Sea Climate and Ecosystem Website
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
The Regime Shift Detection Calculator is implemented in an Excel
spreadsheet, and is freely available for download at:
http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/
For more information, comments, suggestions, or bug reports, please
contact:
Sergei Rodionov
E-mail: Sergei.Rodionov [at] noaa.gov
Regime shifts in time series are associated with shifts in the level and
variance over a protracted period of time. In the marine environment,
ecological regimes may last for several decades and shifts often appear
to be associated with changes in the climate system. The Regime Shift
Detection Calculator implements a new method based on a sequential
algorithm developed by Rodionov (2004) for regime shifts in the mean
level of fluctuations. Rodionov and Overland (2004) and Rodionov et al.
(2004) discuss an application of the method to the Bering Sea ecosystem.
A key aspect is that the magnitude and duration thresholds are set as
external parameters, and the results are presented on a probabilistic
basis. The Regime Shift Detection Calculator can also detect shifts in
the variance. The algorithm for the variance, however, has not been
published yet, and this part of the calculator is still considered
experimental.
The Regime Shift Detection Calculator is implemented in an Excel
spreadsheet, and is freely available for download at:
http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/
There is a "help" web page which provides information on how to install
and run the spreadsheet.
For more information, comments, suggestions, or bug reports, please
contact:
Sergei Rodionov
E-mail: Sergei.Rodionov [at] noaa.gov
References
Rodionov, S.N., 2004: A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime
shifts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, doi:10.1029/2004GL019448.
http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/Regime_shift_algorithm.pdf
Rodionov, S.N., and J.E. Overland, 2004: Application of a sequential
regime shift detection method to the Bering Sea ecosystem. ICES J. Mar.
Sci., 62: 000-000 (in press).
http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/JMS2004_regimes.pdf
Rodionov, S.N., J.E. Overland, and N.A. Bond 2004: Detecting Change in
the Bering Sea Ecosystem. A PowerPoint file (1.4 Mb) of the presentation
at the Symposium on Marine Science in Alaska, Jan 12-14, 2004,
Anchorage, Alaska
http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/Detecting_Change_Bering_Sea_E…