REMINDER: Call for 2011 Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
June Report (Based on May Data)
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
Pan-Arctic Outlook submission deadline: Tuesday, 31 May 2011
Regional Outlook submission deadline: Friday, 27 May 2011
For further information, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php
Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) organizers are soliciting pan-arctic and
regional outlooks for the first report of the season, the June report
(based on May data). We encourage past and new contributors to
participate.
The organizers have planned for several improvements this year,
including increasing attention to error estimates, addition of sea ice
thickness information where available, additional outreach efforts, and
further development of the "Data Resources" webpage
(http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/data.php - please send any
relevant links for us to add).
We also have provided a tentative schedule for the entire season, which
is available at the bottom of this message.
ALL Outlook submissions should be sent directly to Helen Wiggins,
ARCUS, at: helen [at] arcus.org, with the following subject lines, as
relevant:
PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]
REGIONAL OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]
OUTLOOK FOR BOTH REGIONAL AND PAN-ARCTIC - [YOUR LAST NAME]
A Word document is preferred for ease of formatting to PDF files and
extracting images for the website - we will not edit your individual
submission and will not post your Word documents.
SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK
Pan-arctic Outlook contributions should include:
Extent Projection
Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea
ice extent (in million square kilometers).Methods/Techniques
Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model
ensemble runs, etc.).Rationale
Include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.Executive Summary
Provide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in
two or three sentences.Estimate of Forecast Skill (if available)
If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,
uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction. This year, we
will add error estimates to the summary bar chart of outlook estimates,
as appropriate.
This year we would also like to include a brief discussion of ice
thickness in the monthly reports, so please include any relevant
information on ice thickness (or age), if available.
Pan-Arctic Outlook submission deadline: Tuesday, 31 May 2011.
All Outlooks should be sent to:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Regional Outlook contributions should include:
- Region of Interest
While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please
specify which of the following the outlook applies to:
Arctic Regions:
- Beaufort-Chukchi Seas
- East Siberian-Laptev Seas
- Kara-Barents-Greenland Seas
- Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait
- Hudson Bay
- Sea of Okhotsk
- Bering Sea
Shipping Routes:
- Northwest Passage
- Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)
- Arctic Bridge (Murmansk-Churchill)
Sea Ice Parameter
Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phonological
stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates,
length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and
ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be
similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset,
earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice
concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up)
than those of summer 2010.Outline of Methods/Techniques
Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model,
traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology
and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the
estimate.Estimate of Forecast Skill
If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,
uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction.Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional)
What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided
in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your
prediction?
Regional Outlook submission deadline: Friday, 27 May 2011.
All Outlooks should be sent to:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
TENTATIVE 2011 SEA ICE OUTLOOK SCHEDULE
JUNE REPORT (using May data). Deadline for contributions: Regional - 27
May; Pan-Arctic - 31 May. Publish reports online: 10 June.
JULY REPORT (using June data). Deadline for contributions: 31 June.
Publish reports online: 15 July.
AUGUST REPORT (using July data). Deadline for contributions: 29 July.
Publish reports online: 12 August.
SEPTEMBER REPORT (brief updates based on August data). Deadline for
contributions: 30 August. Publish reports online: 14 September.
MINIMUM ANNOUNCEMENT - Based on the National Snow and Ice Data Center's
(NSIDC) announcement for minimum.
POST-SEASON SYNOPSIS (exact dates dependent on when minimum is reached).
Deadline for contributions: early October. Publish post-season synopsis:
late October.
For further information on the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php.
Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org