Date

Call for 2011 Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
July Report (Based on June Data)
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

Pan-Arctic and Regional deadline: Wednesday, 6 July 2011

For further information, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php

Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org

The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) organizers are soliciting pan-arctic and
regional outlooks for the July report (based on June data). We had a
great response for the June report and encourage past and new
contributors to participate. The deadline for both pan-arctic and
regional outlooks is Wednesday, 6 July 2011.

ALL Outlook submissions should be sent directly to Helen Wiggins,
ARCUS, at: helen [at] arcus.org, with the following subject lines, as
relevant:

PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]

REGIONAL OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]

OUTLOOK FOR BOTH REGIONAL AND PAN-ARCTIC - [YOUR LAST NAME]

A Word document is preferred for ease of formatting to PDF files and
extracting images for the website - we will not edit your individual
submission and will not post your Word documents.

SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK
Pan-arctic Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Extent Projection
    Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea
    ice extent (in million square kilometers).

  2. Methods / Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model
    ensemble runs, etc.).

  3. Rationale
    Include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.

  4. Executive Summary
    Provide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in
    two or three sentences.

  5. Estimate of Forecast Skill (if available)
    If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,
    uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction. This year, we
    will add error estimates to the summary bar chart of outlook estimates,
    as appropriate.

This year we would also like to include a brief discussion of ice
thickness in the monthly reports, so please include any relevant
information on ice thickness (or age), if available.

SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Regional Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Region of Interest
    While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please
    specify which of the following the outlook applies to:

Arctic Regions:

- Beaufort-Chukchi Seas
- East Siberian - Laptev Seas
- Kara-Barents-Greenland Seas
- Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait
- Hudson Bay
- Sea of Okhotsk
- Bering Sea

Shipping Routes:

- Northwest Passage
- Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)
- Arctic Bridge (Murmansk - Churchill)

  1. Sea Ice Parameter
    Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phonological
    stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates,
    length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and
    ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be
    similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset,
    earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice
    concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up)
    than those of summer 2010.

  2. Outline of Methods / Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model,
    traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology
    and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the
    estimate.

  3. Estimate of Forecast Skill
    If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,
    uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction.

  4. Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional)
    What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided
    in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your
    prediction?

Pan-Arctic and Regional deadline: Wednesday, 6 July 2011.

All Outlooks should be sent to:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org