ARCUS | Arctic Research Consortium of the United States

7th Annual ARCUS Award for Arctic Research Excellence


Submitted by   Scott Borgerson
Authors  
Category   Social Science
Title   A Navigable Arctic - A Study of the Foreign Policy, Economic Development, and World Order Implications of Arctic Maritime Transit
Affiliation   Diplomacy, History, and Politics, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Boston, MA, USA

Abstract

In fifty years the Arctic may become a hub of global activity. Because of global warming and advancement in naval engineering, a realistic scenario is that the Arctic Ocean will become an active seaway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route. This once year-round frozen body of water could become a vital thoroughfare of international trade between Asia, North America, and Europe. A navigable Arctic would also permit naval surface forces easily to transit the world’s oceans without having to use canals or circumnavigate continents. Similar to other nautical highways around the world, as a new global trade route, the Arctic would also be subject to transnational crime, including the evils of drug trade, illegal migration, and piracy. This increased activity, both legal and illegal, would require law enforcement and regulatory action. Furthermore, the new commercial and maritime uses of the Arctic, including the development of the Arctic’s rich natural resources, would have major global environmental implications. While there is debate within the scientific community regarding to what extent and for how long the Arctic will thaw, current data suggest that by 2050, and perhaps even earlier, the Arctic will be opened for navigation by non-ice-strengthened vessels. If this indeed happens, the ramifications for foreign policy and world order are significant. Because Arctic navigation will most likely increase through the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route (NSR), international legal disputes in these polar regions will take on new importance. Diplomatic solutions will have to be pursued to solve current and emerging Arctic issues. My paper explores the potential military, economic, and social ramifications of a navigable arctic. Issues such as diplomatic disputes over contending territorial claims, the extension of sea power, lines of communication in a global economy, and prospects for international cooperation are all analyzed against the backdrop that due to global warming the Arctic could become an important maritime thoroughfare. In conducting this analysis the paper traces the changing place the Arctic has held in geopoliticians' "mental maps" before painting a picture that geopolinomic processes could in fifty years make the Arctic a hub of global activity.