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October 27, 2003
Seattle, Washington, USA

North Atlantic Oscillation Driven Changes To Wave Climate in the Northeast Atlantic and Their Implications for Ferry Services to the Western Isles of Scotland

John Coll¹, David K. Woolf², Stuart W. Gibb³, Peter G. Challenor⁴, Michael Tsimplis^5
1Environmental Research Institute, UHI Millennium Institute / Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, Castle Street, Thurso, Caithness, KW14 7JD, UK, Phone 44-018-4788, Fax 44-018-4789, John.Coll@thurso.uhi.ac.uk
²Southampton Oceanography Centre/Tyndall Centre For Climate C, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK, Phone 44-023-8059, Fax 44-023-8059, dkw@soc.soton.ac.uk
³Environmental Research Institute, UHI Millennium Institute/Tyndall Centre For Climate Change, Castle Street, Thurso, Caithness, KW14 7JD, UK, Phone 44-018-4788, Fax 44-018-4789, Stuart.Gibb@thurso.uhi.ac.uk
⁴Southampton Oceanography Centre/Tyndall Centre For Climate C, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK, Phone 44-238-059-6413, Fax 44-238-059-6400, P.Challenor@soc.soton.ac.uk
⁵Southampton Oceanography Centre/Tyndall Centre For Climate C, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK, Phone 44-238-059-6412, Fax 44-238-059-6204, mnt@soc.soton.ac.uk

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most prominent and recurrent pattern of atmospheric circulation variability over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and dictates climate variability from the eastern United States to Siberia and from the Arctic to the subtropical Atlantic. Coincident with a highly positive phase of the NAO Index (NAOI) more active westerlies over Northwest Europe have characterised much of the 1980’s and 1990’s, particularly in winter. Situated on the seaward western edge of north-western Europe, the Western Isles and Northwest coast of Scotland are in close proximity to the westerly tracking deep Atlantic depressions of the winter months. With most climate models simulating some increase in the winter NAOI in response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, it is likely that the west coast of Scotland will continue to be impacted by North Atlantic cyclones on a regular basis.

The study region is contemporaneously marginal in socio-economic terms and here, more than elsewhere in the UK, ferry services between the mainland and within island groups form vital trade and communication networks linking communities. Associated with the storminess generated by westerly tracking depressions, the seas to the west and north of Scotland are among the roughest in the world during autumn and winter. Consequently, maintaining a reliable ferry service is both difficult and expensive and while ferry routes avoid the open ocean, some waters are exposed to ocean waves. Here, the inter-annual variability of the ocean wave climate to the west is very high, primarily in response to the NAO and this sensitivity extends to partially sheltered waters and ferry routes. A deterioration in wave climate in response to either natural variability of the NAO, or as a regional response to anthropogenic climate change is distinctly possible. By analysing the contemporary response of the wave climate to shifts in the NAO, there is predicted to be a disproportionately large increase in ferry service disruption in response to any deterioration in wave climate. Some of the economic and social implications of this for this marginal region of the UK are discussed.

Abstract Categories: Changes in the Sea, Student Poster

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