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October 27, 2003
Seattle, Washington, USA

Modeling Impacts of Hydrologic and Climatic Change on Humans in the Arctic

Lilian Alessa¹, Daniel White², Larry Hinzman³, Peter Schweitzer^4
1Biological Sciences, University of Alaska, 3211 Providence Dr., Anchorage, AK, 99508, USA, Phone 907 786 1507, Fax 907 786 4607, afla@uaa.alaska.edu
²Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, PO Box 755860, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA, Phone 907 474 6222, Fax 907 474 7979, ffdmw@uaf.edu
³Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, PO Box 755860, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA, Phone 907 474 7331, Fax 907 474 7979, ffldh@uaf.edu
⁴Anthropology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, PO Box 757720, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA, Phone 907 474 5015, Fax 907 474 7453, ffpps@uaf.edu

Freshwater is critical to the sustainability of humans and their activities in the Arctic. The availability and status of water resources may promote good health or propagate disease, support the distribution and quality of plants and animals used for subsistence and promote or impede access and development. Water has always been and will always be integral to the culture of humans in the Arctic. In the past 30 years, the climate in the Arctic has warmed appreciably and there is evidence for a significant polar amplification of global warming in the future. Recent studies suggest that climate change will have a significant impact on arctic hydrology. Changes in the hydrologic cycle will affect both the presence of surface water and the thermal balance in soil. While preliminary evidence suggests a changing climate will have a significant impact on the hydrologic cycle in arctic regions, very little evidence is available to predict how the quality and quantity of freshwater available to humans is likely to change. Coupled with regional-scale environmental dynamics are local-scale human behaviors and resulting activities in response to perceived change, available technologies and existing policy infrastructures.

The overall objective of the this research is to understand how humans interact with freshwater on local scales in selected parts of the Arctic, how these interactions have changed in the recent past, and how they are likely to change in the future. We seek to develop a model that will allow better prediction of climate-induced changes in the hydrologic cycle particularly at local scales. This will be accomplished by incorporating an understanding of both the sociocognitive and biophysical drivers and feedbacks mediated by human systems. This study will take place on the Seward Peninsula where clear climate induced changes in the hydrologic cycle are already being observed. We will utilize community collaboration, historical documentation, field observations, laboratory experimentation, and agent-driven Boolean modeling to achieve the project goals. This project will work closely with another OPP project “Social-Ecological Resilience and the Future of Remote Resource-Dependent Communities” to cross-link data, optimize methodology sharing and test theory.

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