Abstracts
SEARCH Open Science Meeting
October 27, 2003
Seattle, Washington, USA
Toward the Next Generation of 3D Marine Ecosystem Model
Yasuhiro Yamanaka1, Taketo Hashioka2, Maki N. Aita3, Michio J. Kishi4
1Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan, Phone +81-11-706-2363, Fax +81-11-706-4865, galapen@ees.hokudai.ac.jp
2Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan, hashioka@ees.hokudai.ac.jp
3Frontier Research System for Global Change, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan, macky@jamstec.go.jp
4Graduate School of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, Hakodate, 041-8611, Japan, kishi@salmon.fish.hokudai.ac.jp
To predict the effects of global warming on ecosystem dynamics and the effects of those changes in ecosystem dynamics on biogeochemical cycles, oceanic CO2 uptake, and fishery resources, we need to develop 3D global models which represent explicitly dynamics of oceanic circulation, ecosystems and fishes.
We developed a 3D ecosystem model for the subarctic North Pacific, NEMURO (North pacific Ecosystem Model Used for Regional Oceanography), as members of PICES (North Pacific Marine Science Organization) Model Task Team, which includes phytoplankton and zooplankton divided into two and three groups, respectively. NEMURO has also been coupled with fish bioenergetics and population models for two pelagic fishes, Pacific saury and Pacific herring. Using data sets of observed climatology and simulated fields (CCSR/NIES model) as boundary conditions for our ecosystem model, we conducted preliminary experiments for demonstrating the effects of global warming on ecosystems and pelagic fishes in the subarctic North Pacific. The model results show increased vertical stratification and a poleward shift of the subtropic-subarctic front associated with global warming, causing decreases in biological production and stock size of Pacific saury. This is a good example demonstrating the impacts of global warming on ecosystem and fishery resources. We are also planning to simulate decadal variability of ecosystems, for model validation and to test hypotheses about linkage between climate shift and decadal variability of fish catch.
Abstract Categories: Changes in the Sea
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