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October 27, 2003
Seattle, Washington, USA

Extreme Runoff Events in Arctic Alaska

Douglas L. Kane¹, Larry D. Hinzman², James P. McNamara³, Daqing Yang^4
1Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, PO Box 755860, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA, Phone 907-474-7808, Fax 907-474-7979, ffdlk@uaf.edu
²Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA, Phone 907-474-7331, Fax 907-474-7979, ffldh@uaf.edu
³Geoscience Department, Boise State University, Mail Stop 1535, Boise, ID, 83723, USA, Phone 208-426-1354, Fax 208-426-4061, jmcnamar@boisestate.edu
⁴Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 457 Duckering Building, UAF, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA, Phone 907-474-2468, Fax 907-474-7979, ffdy@uaf.edu

Past history has shown that a warmer climate produced greater precipitation (greater turnover in atmospheric moisture) in the high latitudes. This increased precipitation could fall as rain or snow. Obviously, greater snowfall was required to produce the ice sheets. Presently, only one-third of the annual precipitation falls as snow in northern Alaska. However, every spring during ablation a significant runoff event occurs, often the largest event of the year. In July 1999 and August 2002, two large summer precipitation events occurred that produced summer floods four times greater than the maximum snowmelt floods previously measured.

It has been documented that the Arctic is getting warmer, primarily in the winter. It has not been documented that there has been an increase in precipitation. Existing precipitation data in the Arctic is both limited and of questionable quality. Snowmelt runoff magnitudes for a given watershed are a function of the snow water equivalent and the climate (sustained or intermittent melt). Rainfall precipitation magnitudes are a function of atmospheric conditions and how much moisture can be held in an air mass. With a warmer environment, will we see more extreme precipitation events and are the two large floods observed in 1999 and 2002 an indication of increasing precipitation?

Abstract Categories: Changes on Land

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