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2008 Alaska Park Science Symposium
October 14, 2008
Climate Change Scenarios for AlaskaÕs Northernmost National Parks
Wendy Loya1, Brendan O'Brian2, Anna Springsteen3, Ofer Gelmond4, Scott Rupp5
1Alaska Region, The Wilderness Society, 705 Christensen Drive, Anchorage, AK, 99501, USA
2Alaska Region, The Wilderness Society, 705 Christensen Drive, Anchorage, AK, 99501, USA
3Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning, University of Alaska Fairbanks, PO Box 757200, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA
4Alaska Region, The Wilderness Society, 705 Christensen Drive, Anchorage, AK, 99501, USA
5Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning, University of Alaska Fairbanks, PO Box 757200, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA
Substantial warming has already occurred at high northern latitudes over the last half-century, and Arctic summers are now warmer than at any other time in the last 400 years. Between 1954 to 2003, high northern latitudes warmed by as much as 2 to 3C. Changes in precipitation and moisture balance during this same time period have proven more difficult to document, but most regions seem to have experienced an increase in precipitation over the last several decades. In order to understand what future changes might occur, data from a composite of five down-scaled global circulation models was used to estimate decadal averages of future temperature and precipitation values within the Northern Alaska National Parks. Models were based on a continued increase in greenhouse gas emissions through the middle of the century and then a reduction as alternatives become prevalent. Results suggest an average increase in temperature of approximately 1°F per decade, with winter temperatures increasing most dramatically. Although precipitation is predicted to increase, conditions may actually become drier due to increased moisture losses due to higher evapotranspiration associated with warmer temperatures and a longer growing season. Data such as these can be used now to develop management plans that can be adapted as monitoring and assessment data refine the predictions.
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