2006 Annual Meeting and Arctic Forum | Abstracts

Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment of the Arctic Council: Responding to Changing Marine Access in the Arctic Ocean

Lawson W. Brigham¹, Victor Santos-Pedro², Ross McDonald³, Kimmo Juurmaa⁴, Soffia Gudmundsdottir^5
1U.S. Arctic Research Commission, 420 L Street, Suite 315, Anchorage, AK, 99501, USA, Phone 907-271-4577, Fax 907-271-4578, usarc@acsalaska.net
²Marine Safety (AMSR), Transport Canada, 330 Sparks Street, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0N8, Canada, Phone 613-991-6003, Fax 613-991-4818, santosv@tc.gc.ca
³Transport Canada, 330 Sparks Street, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0N5, Canada, Phone 613-991-3145, Fax 613-993-6414, macdora@tc.gc.ca
⁴Deltamarin Inc., Helsinki, -, Finland, Phone 358-9-47884-443, kimmo.juurmaa@deltamarin.com
⁵PAME International Secretariat, Borgir, Nordurslod, 600 Akureyri, 600, Iceland, Phone 354-461-1355, Fax 354-462-3390, pame@pame.is

The results of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) provided the impetus to the Arctic Council Ministers to request, in November 2004, that the working group PAME (Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment) conduct a comprehensive Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment(AMSA). The lead countries for AMSA are Canada, Finland, and the United States, and the final assessment report will be reported at the 2008 Ministerial meeting in Norway. The Arctic Council acted because the arctic sea ice cover, as documented by ACIA, is undergoing an unprecedented transformation; sea ice thinning, extent reduction, and a reduction in the area of multi-year ice in the central Arctic Ocean. The ACIA sea ice simulations for the 21st century indicate increasing ice-free areas and suggest plausible increases in marine access throughout the Arctic Ocean. Under PAME, the lead countries are to work closely with the Permanent Participants and all the working groups of the Arctic Council to conduct the three-year assessment.

AMSA's first task has been to initiate a survey of arctic shipping or marine activity data for 2004; six arctic coastal states are responsible for providing this information. Shipping has been defined broadly to include all possible ship activities and types: tankers, container ships, bulk carriers, fishing vessels, drill ships, research ships, offshore supply/support vessels, and others. The results of ACIA (primarily sea ice changes) will be coupled with regional economic analyses of marine shipping to develop plausible scenarios for levels of marine activity in 2020 and 2050. AMSA will assess the current (2004) and future (2020 & 2050)social, economic, and environmental impacts of these arctic marine activities on arctic communities, large marine ecosystems (LMEs), and all arctic coastal states. The findings of AMSA will be passed to the arctic states, all arctic stakeholders, and the global maritime community.